Analysis
Gold Records Its Lowest Weekly Close of the Year – When Will the Bleeding Stop?
Sunday, June 7, 2026
Louay Joha – Financial Analyst (Technical & Cyclical), Economic and Geopolitical Writer.
On the daily timeframe, gold prices experienced a notable decline, with the yellow metal closing both the daily and weekly sessions below the $4,350 per ounce level for the first time in 2026, following the release of the U.S. labor market data on Friday, including the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, Average Hourly Earnings, and the Unemployment Rate.
The May Non-Farm Payrolls report showed the creation of 172,000 jobs, down from the previous reading of 179,000, yet significantly better than market expectations of 85,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, in line with forecasts. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%, matching expectations and exceeding the previous reading of 0.2%.
Wage growth is generally considered an indicator of rising inflationary pressures, making these figures among the most closely monitored economic indicators by the Federal Reserve ahead of its upcoming interest rate decision.
From a technical perspective, selling pressure on gold prices may continue due to daily and weekly closes below the 4,592 level, which represents the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, as well as below the 4,499 level, corresponding to the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement of the current upward wave extending from the $4,100 low to the most recent peak at $4,892.
These developments coincide with the lowest daily and weekly close of 2026, as noted at the beginning of this analysis. Consequently, buying gold at this stage remains a technically high-risk decision in both the short and medium term. Further declines toward the 4,100–4,050 region remain possible. This area lies near the midpoint of the current price channel and is expected to serve as a critical dynamic support zone.
Should this support area hold, buyer confidence may gradually return. However, a decisive break below it could open the door for additional downside toward the 3,800–3,600 region, particularly if the current geopolitical crisis in the Middle East persists and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Statements by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz no longer appear to have the same influence on financial markets as they did at the beginning of the crisis. Today, global markets require an actual reopening of the strait and a genuine restoration of shipping and energy transportation flows, rather than further political statements.
As time passes, these remarks continue to lose their ability to influence market sentiment, suggesting that the global economy may be approaching a more critical phase regarding the impact of potential energy supply shortages.
Gold May Fall — Clear Warning Signals Ahead
Sunday, May 31, 2026
Louay Joha – Financial Analyst (Technical & Time-Based Analysis), Economic and Geopolitical Writer.
On the daily timeframe, gold had been forming the characteristics of a typical bullish chart pattern. After establishing a major bottom at $4,098, the price rebounded to $4,894. It was therefore logical to expect a pullback to form a secondary bottom before another upward move. A renewed break above $4,894 would complete a classic double-bottom formation.
To confirm the presence of bullish momentum, we apply the Fibonacci retracement tool from the neckline at $4,894 to the assumed recent bottom at $4,363. We find that the key 0.382 Fibonacci level acts as a crucial threshold.
For positive momentum to be considered intact, the price must close above this level on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. The higher the timeframe of the close, the stronger the bullish momentum.
However, we can clearly see that gold failed to secure even a single daily close above $4,894, which represents a serious negative signal for prices.
If we instead use Fibonacci analysis to measure potential bearish momentum from the major low at $4,098 to the recent high (the previously assumed neckline) at $4,894 we find that the price is currently trading below the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
This suggests that buying is the wrong choice at this stage.
The 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,494 now becomes the key selling trigger.
Should the price break below $4,494, long positions should be avoided entirely. Such a breakdown would open the door to a broader bearish move that could extend toward $4,097 – $3,607 per ounce.
At the moment, gold’s main source of support remains a potential easing of geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, which could help reduce fears of higher interest rates among investors. Continued disruption in the strait would present significant economic and financial challenges for the global economy.
Ultimately, even if such declines occur, they may provide a genuine buying opportunity that many investors never expected to see after gold reached its all-time highs near $5,600 per ounce in record time.
Despite short-term fluctuations, gold remains the world’s premier safe-haven asset and the most trusted precious metal throughout history, having proven its value through every major crisis.
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